Oil Spill Science and Technology, 2nd Edition

2.4. Spill and Blowout Risk Model

The risk of spills and blowouts of various volumes from the example case is determined by evaluating the probability of occurrence and the probability distribution of potential spill volumes. Generally, “risk” is the probability of the occurrence of an event times the consequence of that event. The probability of the event is the relative frequency of the event, in this case, the relative frequency (rate per well or well-year) of spills or blowouts. In this case the “consequence” is the relative volume of spillage. The probability of various kinds of potential spill releases and well blowouts and their respective volumes were analyzed for the example case with the application of FTA and Monte Carlo simulation. ...