Chapter 12. Forecasting

In this chapter, you will learn about . . .

  • The Strategic Role of Forecasting in Supply Chain Management

  • Components of Forecasting Demand

  • Time Series Methods

  • Forecast Accuracy

  • Time Series Forecasting Using Excel

  • Regression Methods

Web resources for this chapter include

  • OM Tools Software

  • Animated Demo Problems

  • Internet Exercises

  • Online Practice Quizzes

  • Lecture Slides in PowerPoint

  • Virtual Tours

  • Excel Worksheets

  • Excel Exhibits

  • Company and Resource Weblinks


Forecasting AT HERSHEY'S

Global companies like Hershey have numerous opportunities to use forecasting along various points in its supply chain. Downstream in its supply chain Hershey's attempts to forecast product demand, which is subject to uncertainties resulting from new and current products from competitors, competitors' promotional events and price changes, and changing consumer tastes for its own current and new products. Issues related to product quality and safety, ingredients, or packaging could adversely affect demand. Negative publicity related to product recalls due to contamination or product tampering, whether valid or not, might also negatively impact product demand. All of these factors affect the forecasting process. Upstream in its supply chain Hershey's sources many different commodities including cocoa products, sugar, dairy products, peanuts, almonds, corn sweeteners, natural ...

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