From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential electionsprediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds.
Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizationsGE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIAhas successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done.
In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can:
draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee
tap the intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees
substitute for endless meetings
By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the marketall to the benefit of their bottom line.
Table of contents
- Title Page
- Part One: Predictions from Markets
- Part Two: What Can Business Markets Do?
- Part Three: Where Can Markets Take Us?
- Part Four: Making Markets Work
- Postscript and Acknowledgments
- The Legal Conundrum Facing US Prediction Markets
- Checklist for Starting a Prediction Market
- Prediction Market Software
- Prediction Market Sites Worth Following
- Further Reading
- About the Author
- Title: Oracles
- Release date: May 2012
- Publisher(s): Harvard Business Review Press
- ISBN: 9781422183199
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