Predicting Malicious Behavior: Tools and Techniques for Ensuring Global Security

Chapter 8

Applying Behavior Principles: Predicting Group Malicious Behavior

During the process of developing AuBA, one of the significant discoveries made is that human behavior, whether generated by an individual or a group, may be studied and analyzed using similar behavioral methods. Because a group's individual members are bound together by common objectives, motivations, and sense of purpose, they will have a collective response to a set of antecedents, which working in combination prompt a specific malicious behavior. Over time, the realization of desired consequences to a group's acts reinforces and maintains the behavior while undesired consequences decrease the probability of future occurrence of the behavior.

In many ways, group behavior is more consistent than that generated by the individual; the adherence to the commonalties that forms the foundation of the group provides a common core that guides how all individuals respond within specific contexts. Often, the group may dress alike, have common nuances of language, and behave as one. In fact, the stated and unstated rules that guide adherence to the group core principles can lead to death if violated (for example, terrorist group, mafia, and so on). This chapter delves more deeply into analysis of malicious group behavior. The basic steps to conduct advanced behavior analytics are also introduced in this chapter.

Analyzing Threat

A consistent characteristic of a group engaging in malicious behavior is threat. Threat ...