© The Author(s), under exclusive license to APress Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2023
S. KampakisPredicting the Unknownhttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-9505-2_4

4. Probability: To Bayes or Not To Bayes?

Stylianos Kampakis1  
(1)
London, UK
 

“Life is a school of probability.”

—William Bagehot

What is probability?

If you’re not a data scientist, you likely have an intuitive understanding of probability from school lessons or based on common sense. For many events, it is impossible to always correctly predict the outcome in advance. But we know that some outcomes are more likely than others. Put simply, probability is a way to express and study which outcomes are more, or less, likely to happen. The etymology of the word “probable” has an interesting ...

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