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Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems by Judea Pearl

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Chapter 9

NON-BAYESIAN FORMALISMS FOR MANAGING UNCERTAINTY

Publisher Summary

This chapter focuses on Dempster—Shafer (D—S) theory, an alternative method of handling partially specified models. Rather than completing the model, the D—S theory sidesteps the missing specifications and computes probabilities of provability rather than computing probabilities of truths. The partially specified model is used only for representing qualitative relationships of compatibility or possibility among the propositions involved. These qualitative relationships are then used as a logic for assembling proofs that lead from evidence to conclusions. The stronger the evidence, the more likely it is that a complete proof would be assembled. The current popularity ...

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