Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition

Confidence

Level

1

0.55

α = 0.40

0

0.28 σ

CV = 0.26 = –––– = ––

α = 0.40

1.10

µ

Lognormal (0.0639198, (0.250561)

2

)

Cost Growth Factor (CGF)

x

1 1.10

414 Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis

TABLE 12.8

NCCA Study: MS C Historical Cost Growth Factors and CVs

Without Quantity Adjustment Quantity-Adjusted

Statistics Base-Year $ Then-Year $ Base-Year $ Then-Year $

Mean 1.11 1.08 1.11 1.10

Standard Deviation 0.50 0.58 0.21 0.28

CV 0.45 0.53 0.19 0.26

FIGURE 12.11

NCCA study: eSBM parameter α for MS C historical programs.

In Figure 12.11, this is shown by x = 1. From Figure 12.11, and the data in the

last column of