Producing Open Source Software

Chapter 1. Introduction

Most free software projects fail.

We tend not to hear very much about the failures. Only successful projects attract attention, and there are so many free software projects in total^[1] that even though only a small percentage succeed, the result is still a lot of visible projects. We also don’t hear about the failures because failure is not an event. There is no single moment when a project ceases to be viable; people just sort of drift away and stop working on it. There may be a moment when a final change is made to the project, but those who made it usually didn’t know at the time that it was the last one. There is not even a clear definition of when a project is expired. Is it when it hasn’t been actively worked on for six months? When its user base stops growing, without having exceeded the developer base? What if the developers of one project abandon it because they realized they were duplicating the work of another—and what if they join that other project, then expand it to include much of their earlier effort? Did the first project end, or just change homes?

Because of such complexities, it’s impossible to put a precise number on the failure rate. But anecdotal evidence from over a decade in open source, some casting around on SourceForge.net, and a little Googling all point to the same conclusion: the rate is extremely high, probably on the order of 90-95%. The number climbs higher if you include surviving but dysfunctional projects: those which are ...