CHAPTER 2
“Gut Feel” vs. Decision Analysis
Introduction to the Psychology of Project Decision-Making
The purpose of psychology is to give us a completely different idea of the things we know best.
—PAUL VALERY, FRENCH POET (1871–1945)
The root cause of almost all project failures is human error or misjudgment. These errors are hard to prevent, for they stem from human psychology. But decision-making is a skill that can be improved by training. By understanding how psychological heuristics and biases can affect our judgment, it is possible to mitigate their negative effects and make better decisions.
Human Judgment Is Almost Always to Blame
In his paper “Lessons Discovered but Seldom Learned or Why Am I Doing This if No One Listens” (Hall 2005), ...
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