Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers

CHAPTER FOUR

Uncertainty Identification

Questions Addressed in Chapter 4

• How should the three dimensions of risk management be used to structure uncertainty identification?
• How should uncertainty identification workshops be organized to be effective instead of boring?
• What is the difference between causes and sources of uncertainties?
• How may we identify the broiler black swans?
• Why should all risk management people get a bowtie?
• What defines room for unknown unknowns?
• What is a technology readiness level?
• What is the role of bias?

INTUITION IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD. On one hand, it plays a key role in uncertainty identification, being an amalgam of our previous experience, education, and knowledge. On the other hand, it could be too selective, deceptive, or even blind. In other words, it could be extremely biased. Recognition of the necessity of using it, along with its utter unreliability, leads us to the need to better structure uncertainty identification activities.

This chapter compares worst and best practices of uncertainty identification. The three dimensions of risk management introduced previously serve as guidelines to keep uncertainty identification focused and specific. Simple but extremely effective uncertainty identification methodologies and tools such as the Delphi technique, risk breakdown structure (RBS), bowtie diagrams, three-part naming, and so on are ...