September 2013
Beginner
400 pages
10h 14m
English
book
Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers
by Yuri Raydugin
Content preview from Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers
Become an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.
CHAPTER TWELVE
Applications of Monte Carlo Methods in Project Risk Management
Questions Addressed in Chapter 12
- What is the value and power of the Monte Carlo methodology?
- How do 5, 000 deterministic scenarios give rise to one probabilistic distribution?
- Why should deterministic and probabilistic methods be seamless?
- What are the origins and roles of general uncertainties and uncertain events in Monte Carlo models?
- What should be done to avoid double dipping?
- Why should correlations never be ignored?
- What is included in project reserves?
- What should project teams and decision makers know about probabilistic branching and merge bias?
- Is it really challenging to quantify unknowns?
- Why should integrated cost and schedule risk analyses come to maturity as soon as possible?
THIS CHAPTER EXAMINES UNCERTAINTY objects taken into account typically as inputs to probabilistic cost and schedule models. The major features of standard probabilistic cost and schedule risk analysis techniques are outlined. Some advanced modeling techniques are also introduced that might be regarded as either exotic or too complicated by some readers. Their application is a must in specific situations to adequately reflect reality in models. It is important to be aware of such techniques in the risk management toolbox.
FEATURES, VALUE, AND POWER OF MONTE CARLO METHODS
In the course of project development ...
Become an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
and much more.
Read now
Unlock full access
More than 5,000 organizations count on O’Reilly
O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.