Estimates and Probabilities
Think about estimating the schedule and cost for a 500-mile car trip. How many hours will it take to get there? How much money will need to be spent along the way? You can't know the exact outcomes unless you actually get into a car and make the trip—or you can ask someone who already made that same trip. Any estimated schedule and cost would have to be predictions. Recognize that there is inherent uncertainty in estimates. The uncertainty in the 500-mile car trip is driven by a number of different causes, including the following:
What will the weather be like; will you be slowed by rain, snow, fog, or ice?
What will the traffic be like; will you get caught in any traffic jams?
How much road construction will there be? ...
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