Estimation by Analogy
A somewhat more sophisticated method that is usually more accurate than expert judgment is estimation by analogy. This method is based on the assumption that if the thing being estimated is a lot like something we already know about, we can base the estimate of the new thing on our experience with the old thing together with allowances for known differences.
Suppose you are still at the library automation company. It's now several months later. The company won the contract on the first library system and has already completed that work. Another RFP shows up for automating a different library system with 15 branch libraries and 60,000 books. Having the experience of the first project, you might now know that it actually cost ...
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