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Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition by Terje Aven

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Chapter 13Discussion

In this chapter, we discuss some factors that are important for ensuring that the risk analysis is carried out in a professional manner and provides adequate decision support. We have already pointed out many such factors in the earlier chapters. There is, however, a need to summarise the important points and expand the discussion of certain issues, for example, related to the strengths and weaknesses of the risk analyses. The following issues will be discussed:

  • Risk analysis as a decision support tool: (i) the use of risk analysis in the decision-making process and (ii) the methods must be tailored to the analysis objectives.
  • The importance of understanding that risk is more than calculated expected values and probabilities.
  • The strong points and limitations of risk analysis.
  • The importance of reflecting on approaches, methods and models.
  • Limitations of the causal chain approach.
  • Risk perspectives.
  • Scientific basis.
  • Critical systems and activities.
  • On the difference between risk as seen from the perspectives of the analysts and management.

13.1 Risk analysis as a decision support tool

Risk analyses are carried out to provide decision-making support regarding choice of solutions and measures. Risk analysis does not give direct answers as to what is the correct solution and measure, but it only gives a risk description that will provide a basis for the choice of solutions or measures. The various examples given in Chapters 712 have demonstrated this fact. ...

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