Risk Analysis and Human Behavior

PART I

Overview

Risk decisions involve choices among options, each with some chance of producing some amount of some outcomes that decision makers value. Decision makers’ beliefs about those outcomes are commonly called their risk perceptions. The relative weight that they assign to them is captured in their risk evaluations. Scientific assessment of the outcomes’ probability and value is called risk analysis. Sharing information about them is risk communication.

In these terms of art, “risk” is something of a misnomer, implying that a decision could be about risks alone. There is, however, no reason to choose a risky option unless it offers some possible benefit, if only the chance to reduce a larger risk. For example, one might accept the ...