Risk Analysis and Human Behavior

PART II

Behaviorally realistic risk analysis

Risk analyses produce quantitative estimates of the probabilities of valued outcomes. When those outcomes occur repeatedly in a stable world, risk analyses are, in effect, statistical estimates. In an unstable world, though, statistics must be interpreted in the light of changes that might affect them (e.g., how frequent would auto accidents be, if the speed limit were raised or if there were more light vehicles on the roads?). With novel situations (e.g., innovative uses of nanotechnology or designs for nuclear power plants), risk analyses are all exercises in expert judgment. They require identifying factors that might affect risk levels, then assembling knowledge about those factors into a predictive ...