Risk Assessment, 2nd Edition

7 “What‐if” Analysis Methods

Bruce Lyon¹ and Georgi Popov²

¹ Brown & Brown

² University of Central Missouri

OBJECTIVES

• Introduce “What-if” Analysis
• Review its applications and process steps
• Introduce a Structured What-if Risk Assessment model
• Present case study

7.1 Introduction

The “What‐if” approach to assessing risk can be a simple and effective means of better understanding risk and its effects. For fatalities and serious incidents (FSI) experienced within an organization, the use of the question “what‐if” prior to the incidents may have help prevent or reduce the impact of the results. Unfortunately, such analysis is often not considered until after the event.

For example, questions raised in a chemical process might include “what if a runaway chemical reaction occurred inside a pressure vessel,” or “what will happen if the vessel explodes violently,” or “what if highly flammable solvent sprayed from the vessel and immediately ignited”? “What if pieces of the exploded vessel hit nearby pining releasing toxic chemicals?” “What if the released chemicals impacted workers onsite and members of the public in the surrounding community?” Such questions can be critical in understanding the effects and preventing or reducing operational risks.

“What‐if” is an important tool for the safety professional to identify and analyze the risk sources, potential causes, conditions, consequences, and controls. It is particularly useful when applied early in the design process and ...