is book is derived from my doctoral research work and is a revised version of my
rst book, Risk Assessment for Water Infrastructure Safety and Security (2011). e
topics covered in this book represent advances in research and development over
the past several years. e aim of this book is to present material to convey the
essence of employing the methodology of the “quantitative psychology of intuitive
judgments into risk assessment for homeland and critical infrastructure protection
and to improve public perception of risk on terrorism” using pipelines, tunnels,
underground rapid rail, and transit systems as examples. e emphasis is on apply-
ing quantitative psychology in risk management in the area of homeland security and
defense. However, as it is a new, unproven methodology involving human psychol-
ogy, it has not yet been utilized in these areas.
e book is divided into eight chapters. Chapter 1 presents the signicance of
risk and acceptability analyses to protect pipelines, tunnels, underground rails, and
transit systems against terrorist attacks. e preparedness as well as the preventive
and defensive approaches in this book are intended for man-made disasters, because
an act of God can only be managed and can never be controlled, unlike terrorist
acts. e purpose and objectives are discussed in detail to prepare readers for what
is to follow in the subsequent chapters.
Chapter 2 deals with material used for fabricating weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) and operations for terrorism including a summary of natural disasters.
Natural disasters arising from seismic waves and wind loads are already part of
considerations in the structural analysis and design of infrastructures. Engineers
should also be aware of the engineering designs and planning and construction of
critical infrastructure to ward o terrorist attacks (e.g., impact load of improvised
explosive devices on structures), which are covered in this chapter. ey should
also employ protective and defensive measures to mitigate terrorists from causing
Chapter 3 outlines the background and system operations of pipelines, tunnels,
underground rails, and transit systems as well as other superspeed futuristic trains
(e.g., magnetic levitation, Swissmetro, CargoCap, and tubular rail). It discusses
hazards in the event of an explosion as well as the formation and ight of missiles,
xx ◾ Preface
dispersion of toxic substances, and dangerous debris released due to demolition of
infrastructures. Clandestine tunnels used in times of war, including secret man-
power mobilization for WMD production and transshipment and illegal tunnels
on borders, are also described in this chapter.
Chapter 4 discusses the risk and vulnerability assessment tools and methodolo-
gies used by experts and governmental agencies. It also elaborates on the historical
development of cumulative prospect theory.
Chapter 5 deals with the probabilistic risk estimation process, event tree analy-
sis, and fault tree analysis. Terrorism activity scenario developments are illustrated
from causative event to prescribing consequence value using examples related to
pipelines, tunnels, underground rail and transit systems, clandestine tunnels, and
transshipment of WMD materials.
Chapters 6 and 7 form the crux of the book. ese chapters describe the mean-
ing and signicance of risk acceptability analysis based on quantitative psychology
of intuitive predictions for homeland and critical infrastructure protection. It has
a vital role to compare alternative solutions and operations or used for policy for-
mulation or to select special features of technologies that are mission critical for
the safety and security of assets. Chapter 7 integrates risk assessment methodology
with intelligence analysis and military intuitive judgment and provides illustra-
tive examples and graphical presentations of dierent scenarios. It also introduces
the role that the military plays to support civilians in the event of terrorist strikes,
including regulations that mandate their missions and limitations.
Chapter 8 reviews preparedness and preventive measures and describes the need
for defensive systems that can discriminate and terminate terrorists before they can
sabotage infrastructures. Technologies and operations to detect illegal tunnels,
land mines, and improvised explosive devices currently available and being devel-
oped are presented in this chapter. e use of Mother Nature to support warfare is
briey discussed in the last part of the chapter.
is work is the culmination of tireless eort and perseverance. I share my
thoughts, experiences, and ideas and contribute to improving the safety and secu-
rity of the homeland. I am honored that Mark Listewnik, senior editor at Taylor
& Francis Group, my work organization, and all the people who inspired me have
given me a chance to make this a reality.