Forecasting Stock Prices and Portfolio Decisions using Time Series

I wish I had put more money into this stock. I should have trusted my technical analysis. I need to trust my broker. My gut feeling told me I should have cut my losses. Aren't these all statements that we have heard individuals involved in stock markets say at some point?

With a stock price, you can instantly see the impact of getting forecast right or wrong. It pays to be right. But if it were so simple, anyone could forecast the closing price of a blue-chip share and make millions. Maybe if it were so simple, there wouldn't be anything to distinguish investors, and the returns for everyone investing would be smaller, as the winning prize would be split across millions of ...

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