How does scenario planning work in actual practice? Is it something that anyone can do, or do you need a doctorate in futurology, five years of apprenticeship at the feet of a master, nerves of steel, and a pilot’s license?
The answer is that you can gain many of the basic benefits of scenario planning on your own, without adult supervision. However, as with any intellectual process, experience and expertise are very valuable when it comes to scenario planning, so even though it’s not necessary to post a warning (e.g., “Do not try this at home!”), it’s not a bad idea to have some expert help if you want to get the most out of it.
In this part of the book, we’ll explore the process, and you’ll see that it’s possible to generate some solid scenario work without a PhD. (I will have to be careful not to give away too many trade secrets, though, or the International Brotherhood of Scenario Planners may send me a nasty letter. Or worse, revoke my membership.)
There is no fixed, here’s-how-you-do-it rulebook for conducting a scenario planning process or workshop. There are a lot of variations, and many experts have developed their own proprietary approaches, so each exercise is likely to be somewhat different, depending on the preferred methodology and experience of the experts facilitating the discussion.
However, even though ...