Scenario Planning in Organizations

Preface

THE FUTURE OFTEN ACTS like a drunken monkey stung by a bee—it is confused and disturbing, and its behavior is completely unpredictable. Organization leaders are struggling with an uncertain and fast-changing environment. Many are frustrated by the promise of tools for managing the future that come up short. A variety of terms has been used to describe the environment, such as whitewater, the rapids, VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous), and turbulent. These terms all emphasize that business decision making is an activity that has reached high levels of frustration and confusion. Signs point to increasing complexity and uncertainty. This means choosing among options will become even more challenging, and carving a path into ...