PART II

Illustrations of Theory-Based Analysis

THE PREVIOUS SECTIONshould have helped you to build intuition about how to use the theories of innovation to predict industry change. This section furthers that intuition by showing how to use the principles in Seeing What’s Next to peer into the future of five distinct industries—education, aviation, semiconductors, health care, and telecommunications—and to analyze innovation overseas.

Everyone who cares about any industry’s future—from senior executives to mutual fund managers to policymakers to Wall Street stock analysts—must answer the same basic questions: Which innovations are threats, which innovations are opportunities, and which innovations will be duds? Which firms are best positioned ...

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