Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

CHAPTER 8 Timing and Sizing the Next Growth Boost

In the last few chapters, we argued that defeatist growth narratives ignored the potential for productivity shifts (chapter 5); that such macroeconomic acceleration happens because of the transformation of labor cost (chapter 7); and that a new wave of technology makes credible promises to deliver such labor-cost reductions in the service economy (also chapter 7).

But how much can productivity boost growth? And how soon? After two decades of disappointing growth impact from digital technology, readers are rightly skeptical about the often exuberant claims made by those at the frontier of technological change.

This chapter provides a guide for timing and sizing the next growth boost. Though ...