Memory vs. Recorded Data
Steve McConnell, in Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art [McC06], reports that “individual expert judgment is by far the most common approach used in practice.” When we talk about estimation by expert judgment, we’re really talking about comparison with past experiences. You can augment memories of those experiences with recorded data, when that’s available. There are often files of information about past projects that can be mined for data. How similar were the requirements of this old project to the one we’re contemplating? How many people worked on it, in what roles, and for how long?
Inaccurate Memories
Most manuals on estimation warn you that estimating based on remembered data is fraught with inaccuracies. ...
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