Statistical Rethinking

2 Small Worlds and Large Worlds

When Cristoforo Colombo (Christopher Columbus) infamously sailed west in the year 1492, he believed that the Earth was spherical. In this, he was like most educated people of his day. He was unlike most people, though, in that he also believed the planet was much smaller than it actually is—only 30,000 km around its middle instead of the actual 40,000 km (FIGURE 2.1)³⁵ This was one of the most consequential mistakes in European history. If Colombo had believed instead that the Earth was 40,000 km around, he would have correctly reasoned that his fleet could not carry enough food and potable water to complete a journey all the way westward to Asia. But at 30,000 km around, Asia would lie a bit west of the coast ...