Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics: A Feedback Systems Approach

2.1. Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society

The idea that there is an enduring structure to business and social systems, which somehow predetermines achievable futures, is not necessarily obvious. Some people argue that personalities, ambition, chance, circumstance, fate and unforeseen events hold the keys to the future in an uncertain world. But an interpretation of what is happening around you depends on your perspective. What appears to be chance may, from a different perspective, have a systemic cause. For example, when driving on a busy highway you may experience sporadic stops and starts. Does that mean you are at the mercy of random events like breakdowns or accidents? Not necessarily. Trapped in a car at ground level you don't see the waves of traffic that arise from the collective actions of individual drivers as they try to maintain a steady speed while keeping a safe distance from the car in front. There is an invisible structure to the 'system' of driving on a crowded motorway that causes sporadic stops and starts, without the need for accidents (though, of course, they do happen too). You can sense such structure, or at least something systemic, in the pattern of traffic density (alternating bands of congestion and free flow) observable from a nearby hillside overlooking the motorway, where you have the benefit of an overview. The same benefit of perspective applies to all kinds of business and social problems. So, in a way, this chapter is quite ...