Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics: A feedback systems approach, + Website, 2nd Edition

Table of contents

1. About the Author
2. Foreword by Peter Checkland
3. Preface to the Second Edition
   1. Notes
4. Preface from the First Edition
   1. Manufacturing Dynamics and Information Networks
   2. Bounded Rationality and Behavioural Decision Making
   3. Modelling for Learning
   4. The Dynamics of Strategy
   5. Soft Systems and Complementary Modelling Methods
   6. Notes
5. How to Use This Book
   1. MBA and Modular/Executive MBA
   2. Non-Degree Executive Education
   3. Undergraduate and Specialist
   4. Notes
6. Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling
   1. Introduction
   2. A New Approach to Modelling
   3. The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries
   4. Model of a Natural Fishery
   5. Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery
   6. Preview of the Book and Topics Covered
   7. Appendix – Archive Materials from World Dynamics
   8. Notes
   9. References
7. Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking
   1. Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society
   2. A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams
   3. Structure and Behaviour Through Time – Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-Respond Shower
   4. From Events to Dynamics and Feedback – Drug-related Crime
   5. Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams – A Summary
   6. Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business
   7. Causal Loop Diagrams – Basic Tips
   8. Causal Loop Diagram of Psychological Pressures and Unintended Haste in a Troubled Internet Start-Up
   9. Notes
   10. References
8. Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems
   1. Asset Stock Accumulation
   2. The Coordinating Network
   3. Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime
   4. Equation Formulations
   5. Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime
   6. Benefits of Model Building and Simulation
   7. Notes
   8. References
9. Chapter 4 World of Showers
   1. Getting Started
   2. Redesigning Your World of Showers
   3. Inside World of Showers
   4. Simulations of World of Showers B
   5. Notes
   6. References
10. Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building
    1. An Overview of the Modelling Process
    2. Employment and Production Instability – Puzzling Performance Over Time
    3. Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control
    4. Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics
    5. Equation Formulations in Workforce Management
    6. Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It
    7. Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems
    8. Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams
    9. Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing
    10. Notes
    11. References
11. Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion
    1. Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption – A Conceptual Diffusion Model
    2. The Bass Model – An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model
    3. A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe
    4. Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios
    5. Conclusion
    6. Appendix: More About the Fliers Model
    7. Notes
    8. References
12. Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth
    1. A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment
    2. Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure
    3. An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy
    4. Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth
    5. Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth
    6. Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment
    7. Simulation Experiments
    8. Redesign of the Investment Policy
    9. Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity
    10. Conclusion
    11. Appendix – Gain of a Reinforcing Loop
    12. Notes
    13. References
13. Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics – Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers
    1. Problem Articulation – Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price
    2. Model Development Process
    3. A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making
    4. Connecting the Pieces – A Feedback Systems View
    5. A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession
    6. Using the Model to Generate Scenarios
    7. Devising New Scenarios
    8. Endnote: A Brief History of the Oil Producers' Project
    9. Note
    10. References
14. Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling
    1. Urban Dynamics – Growth and Stagnation in Cities
    2. Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care
    3. Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy
    4. Conclusion
    5. Appendix – Alternative Simulation Approaches
    6. Notes
    7. References
15. Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning
    1. Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models
    2. Models of Business and Social Systems
    3. Tests for Building Confidence in Models
    4. Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods
    5. Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model
    6. Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model
    7. Tests of Learning from Simulation
    8. Summary of Confidence Building Tests
    9. Conclusion – Model Fidelity and Usefulness
    10. Endnote: The Loops of Feedback
    11. Notes
    12. References
16. About the Website Resources
17. Index
18. EULA