Strategic Planning Kit For Dummies®, 2nd Edition

Chapter 15

Scenario Planning: Answering the What Ifs

In This Chapter

• Planning for short-term risks and uncertainties
• Developing potential future operating environments
• Linking future scenarios with your overall organizational strategies

Because none of us can predict the future, we have to rely on a combination of instincts and research so we can see the future a little more clearly. Although some consider scenario planning an exercise in mapping uncertainty, I subscribe to the philosophy of Pierre Wack, world-renown leader in scenario planning, who sees it as an exercise in isolating certainties.

In this chapter, I guide you through creating scenarios and possible actions to address short-term or immediate uncertainties as well as building longer-term scenarios for possible future operating environments. In both cases, you explore strategic thinking exercises intended to solidify and refine your core business strategy. Because strategic planning is about making decisions, scenario planning is a tool to help you feel confident that your decisions are the best ones, based on moving from uncertainty to certainty.