Strategic Planning Kit For Dummies®, 2nd Edition

Considering Example Scenarios

Major corporations and research firms often develop and share future scenarios specific to an industry's future or to address major global problems. In this section, I provide several examples that may be relevant to your organization. Although you may not be able to use these scenarios in total because they weren't created to solve your specific business issue, often you can use them as inputs to your scenario planning process.

Want more? You can find an outstanding library of scenarios compiled by Daniel Eramsus, professor and scenario planning pioneer, at www.scenariothinking.org. Since 1996, post-graduate MBA students have published scenarios about the future of the information society online as part of his classes on scenario thinking at the various business schools around the world. This site includes more than 100 scenarios (and growing) on everything from climate change to the future of work.

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

Shell Oil continues to be the leader in scenario planning, with a specific eye toward the impact of oil on our society, economy, and environment.

Here's a quick overview of the drivers and the two scenarios Shell developed in its “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2025” report:

Key Drivers: The three key driving forces are (1) step-change in energy use, (2) supply will struggle to keep pace, and (3) environmental stresses are increasing. ...