Strategic Project Management Made Simple, 2nd Edition

7Question #3—What Other Conditions Must Exist?

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

—Mark Twain

FIGURE 7.1 Reduce Risk by Managing Assumptions

Surface and Test Assumptions

Every project is risky, and success is always uncertain. But too many projects falter or fail unnecessarily due to problems that could have been anticipated and mitigated during the design stage. Now we take a look at how to factor-in risk by first identifying our major Assumptions necessary to achieve our Objectives. Assumptions occupy the fourth column in the LogFrame matrix (see Figure 7.1).

We define Assumptions as factors necessary for success that may be beyond your control. Assumptions are what we believe to be true, whether based on past experiences, data, or gut feelings. Make the implicit assumptions floating around in your mind explicit by putting them in writing. Then you can examine them for probability and potential impact, and then decide how to handle.

Surfacing and testing your LogFrame assumptions is the starting point for more rigorous risk analysis. This strengthens confidence in the project hypothesis and helps you sleep at night.

Spot Trouble Before It Strikes

Mark Twain said it all. The worst Assumptions are the ones we make without being aware we are even making them or considering they might be wrong. It ...