Strategic Security Management

shows the importance of following security policies and procedures as well as

analyzing the crime statistics and other internal data thoroughly.

Law Enforcement Data versus Social

Disorder Models

Some companies have used social disorder models in place of crime analy-

sis, though more and more are realizing the problems associated with these

models. Since the publication of Applied Crime Analysis in 2001, the author

has seen more than 90 percent of his security consulting firm’s clients migrate

away from using social disorder theories toward utilizing true crime analysis.

While those numbers are substantial, still many organizations do not under-

stand the concerns of social disorder models, the most problematic of which

are discussed here.

Social disorder models are based primarily on criminological theory with

little practical use since the primary source of their metrics is demographic

data. Among the primary problems of the social disorder model is the failure

to publish the methodology used in arriving at the model’s results. Without a

published and peer-reviewed methodology, security professionals cannot rely

on the data, and one can only imagine the implications of having a large part

of a company’s risk model rejected by the courts during litigation. Security

directors have a responsibility to fully understand the risk model they use and

to be prepared to explain it in deposition and trial when representing their

company in litigation.

Another problem associated with social disorder models is their reliance on

demographic data. Although private firms collect demographic data more fre-

quently, the majority of demographic data in the United States is only collected

every 10 years via the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Because of the time lag needed

to obtain the demographic data and the subsequent time required to develop

the model from that data, results are not timely. Social disorder models also

present some challenges in effectively removing race from the analysis since the

base demographic data are based on an area’s population and its characteris-

tics, including socioeconomic levels, education levels, and personal traits of the

populace such as age, sex, and race. Contrary to FBI crime reports and actual

police data, large areas of the United States are considered high crime accord-

ing to social disorder models, necessitating many companies to discontinue use

of the model in large parts of the country. Some companies have faced charges

of redlining, which is the private-sector equivalent of racial profiling, resulting

in a negative impact on the corporate reputation.

Advantages of Law Enforcement Data

Police data represents the most widely used source data for crime analysis

because it presents an accurate crime history for a property and is from an

objective source. Since police departments don’t have a stake in a company or

Crime Analysis 61