Supply Chains: A Manager's Guide

Analyzing the Future

The techniques of time-series analysis described so far are powerful, but they aren't the answer to every forecasting problem. New products, which have no sales history, obviously require a different approach. If a product is similar to existing products, it may be possible to project its sales by taking a percentage of an existing aggregate forecast. If not, alternative techniques may be necessary to predict its sales. Similarly, it may be necessary to supplement time-series analysis with other techniques for products that are subject to changing market forces, such as increasing customer expectations or the emergence of new competitors.

In situations where time-series analysis isn't enough, forecasting requires the use ...