Systems Engineering in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

10Reliability‐Based Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment: A Mining Engineering Case Study

H. Sebnem Duzgun

Synopsis

The fourth industrial revolution has created a need for enhanced reliability‐based hazard analysis and risk assessment for managing the uncertainties in earth resources industries. This chapter does not address directly the Industry 4.0 challenges but can serve as a basis for such work by providing an example from extractive industries. Quantification of risks due to failure of natural and engineered rock slopes is essential for supporting objective decision making in rock engineering. Although risk assessment is well developed in structural engineering, its adoption in rock engineering still involves various challenges. These challenges include modeling and quantification of uncertainties, implementation of probabilistic modeling frameworks for hazard assessment, prediction of losses in relation to potential instability, and evaluation of the assessed risk in terms of established acceptability/tolerability criteria. Such challenges also impact the development of engineering standards and, hence, the engineering practice. This chapter provides an overview of probabilistic approaches for rock slope stability analysis with emphasis on the first‐order reliability method (FORM) in hazard assessment. The methods for quantification of uncertainties are also explained. Then, quantitative prediction of losses due to rock slope instabilities and associated risk assessment ...