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Technological Change and the Environment by Arnulf Grübler

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Chapter 4

Induced AdaptiveInvention/Innovation andProductivity Convergence inDeveloping Countries

Robert E. Evenson

4.1   Introduction

In the 1950s, economists concerned with economic development programs expected the remaining decades of the twentieth century to be characterized by a pattern of “convergence” in per capita income levels. Those countries with low per capita income in 1950 were perceived to enjoy the “advantages of backwardness” and to have the greatest scope for growth in subsequent decades. Development economists also did not generally expect the agricultural sector to be the leading sector in development experience. Many formal models (notably the Latin American structuralist models) were predicated on the expectation that ...

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