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Technological Change and the Environment by Arnulf Grübler

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Chapter 11

A Model of EndogenousTechnological Change throughUncertain Returns on Innovation

Arnulf Grübler and Andrii Gritsevskyi

11.1   Introduction

Changes in products, devices, processes, and practices—that is, changes in technology—largely determine the development and consequences of industrial society. Historical evidence (e.g., Freeman 1989; Mokyr 1990; Maddison 1991; Grübler 1998) and economic theory (Tinbergen 1942; Solow 1957; Denison 1962, 1985; Griliches 1996) confirm that advances in technological knowledge are the single most important contributing factor to long-term productivity and economic growth. Technology is also central to the long-term evolution of the environment and to development problems now on policy agendas worldwide ...

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