Chapter 1How to Shift the Odds in Your Favor in the Best of Times and the Worst of Times

You miss 100% of the shots you never take.Wayne Gretsky

Hundreds of years ago, in medieval Austria, a small but determined army was trying desperately to hold on to its fortress against tremendous odds. For more than six months, the defenders had been surrounded by a hostile army. With no way to contact outside help to replenish their stocks, supplies had dwindled to a desperate level. Only one cow and two bags of grain were left.

The fortress soldiers, wracked with fatigue and hunger, turned to their commander for guidance.

Expecting their leader to say the expected, "Ration the food for as long as we can hold out," they were astonished and perturbed when ...

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