CHAPTER FOUR
Predicting Trends
We assume that you have made a few passes through Chapter 3 and have just deployed a monitoring, trending, graphing, and measurement system. Now you can use this data (excluding the barking statistics) like a crystal ball and predict the future like Nostradamus. But, let’s stop here for a moment to remember an irritating little detail: it’s impossible to accurately predict the future.
Forecasting capacity needs is part context and part math. It’s also the art of slicing and dicing of historical data and making educated guesses about the future. Outside of those rare bursts and spikes of load on the system, the long-term view is hopefully one of steadily increasing usage. By putting all of this historical data into perspective, you can generate estimates for what your organization would need to sustain the growth of a website. As we’ll see later, the key to making robust forecasts is to have an adjustable process. In the cloud context, the forecasts guide the design of the autoscaling policies (the topic of autoscaling is discussed in detail in Chapter 6).
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