September 2015
Beginner to intermediate
336 pages
7h 44m
English
book
The Best Thinking in Business Analytics from the Decision Sciences Institute
by Decision Sciences Institute, Merrill Warkentin
Content preview from The Best Thinking in Business Analytics from the Decision Sciences Institute
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4. Are Gold Prices Moved by Oil and the S&P?
—Mary Malliaris, Loyola University Chicago
Abstract
We developed clusters on a training set and then used the cluster assignment and derived variables as inputs into a support vector machine model. The results show that both oil and the S&P play an important part in forecasting gold’s direction tomorrow. The support vector machine does a very good job predicting Up movements but is not reliable at predicting Down days. We used a 24-year training horizon to forecast daily for the next 25 months. The results were stable over the two-year-plus period, with Up-direction forecasts correct 84% of the time and Down-direction forecasts correct 21% of the time.
Introduction
Predicting price movement in gold ...
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I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.