September 2015
Beginner to intermediate
336 pages
7h 44m
English
book
The Best Thinking in Business Analytics from the Decision Sciences Institute
by Decision Sciences Institute, Merrill Warkentin
Content preview from The Best Thinking in Business Analytics from the Decision Sciences Institute
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6. Contrasting Approaches for Forecasting the S&P 500
—Mary Malliaris, Quinlan School of Business, Loyola University
—A.G. Malliaris, Quinlan School of Business, Loyola University
Abstract
This paper develops and compares several methods of forecasting the S&P 500 Index, using only data based on the closing value and trained over a six-decade dataset. The methodologies include a C5.0 decision tree, a neural network, and a group of forecasts based on training set patterns of directional change from one to seven days in length. Methods are compared by using the number of correct forecast directions and by calculating the amount of gain/loss. We found that the neural network yielded the most gain, but the six-day string pattern did the best at ...
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