The Black Swan Problem

Epilogue

SO WHAT HAS THE Black Swan framework taught us? Well, I can only speak for myself. It has had a profound effect on my world‐view. I have become much more sensitive to the distorting effect that rigid ideologies and (about to be outdated) scientific paradigms can have on our decision‐making. I have become very good at sensing, in myself and others, the crucial mechanism of creating an attractive story and then nourishing it by selectively interpreting the incoming evidence. This pattern is all over the place. In our increasingly polarized society, people find purpose in opting into ideological tribes that feed them a sense of righteousness and belonging. However, these communities frequently end up being echo chambers that relish, more than anything it seems, harshly clamping down on dissenting views. Whatever common sense would have you think, be damned. The party line is not negotiable. It seems that the narrative and confirmation biases have gone into overdrive. They are having a field day in the post‐truth era we find ourselves in. It is a dangerous path, because if the core mechanism is on steroids, that might be true for the Black Swans that follow as well.

Amidst this, Taleb's approach is very refreshing. It is an altogether different frame of mind. It is an empirically grounded way of looking at the world, free of prejudice and ideologies (well, almost). It has us trying to figure out what really works – what has proven robust under real and possibly harsh conditions. ...