The Book of Real-World Negotiations

21Adaptability in the Face of Uncertainty: Saving the Philippines Peace Process after a Last-Minute Reversal

Based on an interview with David Gorman

Some complex negotiations are akin to putting together a puzzle, but without a clear idea of what the completed puzzle will ultimately look like. In these scenarios, negotiators and third parties have to work with the pieces in front of them, to try to see how they fit together, and gradually move inwards from a broad framework to placing the last, and most difficult pieces, into place.

There may be no more difficult negotiation than trying to end a large-scale societal conflict. Due to the sheer number of parties involved, the issues in question, and the forces that may be benefitting from a conflict, the odds are definitively against finding a solution. However, there are always exceptions, and they must be studied for how they achieved success. Consider the example below from the Philippines. This process was complicated and required some adaptive thinking when a last-minute reversal threw the entire process into doubt. Fortunately, due to the efforts of a facilitator and larger contact group, the process was saved from failure.

Background and the Negotiation Challenge

The Philippines has experienced internal conflict for over four decades. The violence was primarily related to poor governance that empowered a few at the expense of the rest of the population. As a result, local rebellions against the elites and rivalries ...