The Complete Software Project Manager

Chapter 8Project Risks: The Five Most Common Project Hazards and What to Do About Them; Budgeting and Risk

“Risk” is a very basic word in our lives. Driving a car is risky; riding a horse is risky; starting a new relationship is risky. Most people translate the word risk into the following statement: “There is a chance that I will endure some harm, but in all likelihood, I will not.”

The word risk in software development has a totally different meaning. Software risks can be defined as the number of unknown and inherently “complex” elements of a project that have a high likelihood of impacting budget and timeline.

You may recall in Chapter 1 we discussed the difference between the simple, the complicated, and the complex. To review, simple tasks (e.g., shoveling piles of snow) are easy to understand and simply take effort—sometimes a lot of effort. Complicated tasks (e.g., assembling an Ikea desk) may take a lot of time, have lots of steps, involve mistakes and do-overs, but with enough diligence there is an almost 100 percent certainty that they will get done. In contrast, complex tasks (e.g., heart surgery on an elderly patient with several unknown underlying conditions) are inherently risky. No matter how skilled the surgeon is, there is no way of knowing if the patient will get off the table.

In terms of risk, ideal software projects would consist of lots of Ikea desk and snow shoveling activities and would involve very few heart surgeries. In life, though, sometimes you ...