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The Demographics of Innovation

Book Description

As the population ages, which nation will rise to lead innovation in the future?

Demographics of Innovation takes a deep, investigative look at the link between economic growth, innovation, vitality and entrepreneurship in an aging population, and provides smart strategy for the future. Written by a Stanford-trained economist and demographics expert, who is also a prominent internet entrepreneur, this book examines demographic trends across nations and digs into the divergence to find awakening innovation. An aging population hampers growth; while many are focused on the care-related financial burden, few have fully explored the ways in which a seismic demographic shift could transform the face of global business. This book charts the trends, connects the dots and reveals which nations will be best placed to build an innovation economy and grow in the future.

Global business is set to undergo a revolution as aging populations mired in old thinking become left behind by younger, brighter, more forward-looking generations. Innovation loss is the first step in stagnation, so the question becomes: who will win and who will lose in this new world order? This book presents clear analysis of the coming demographic bomb, and proposes insightful strategy for the short and long term.

  • Delve into the aging of society and the economic issues it creates
  • Learn how shifting demographics affects innovation and prosperity
  • Examine trends in growth, policy and more alongside the rise in average age
  • Make smarter planning decisions in light of the changing population

The problems of overpopulation pale in comparison to the problem of aging on a massive global scale. Demographics dictate growth rates, economic equilibrium, interest rates and so much more. Demographics of Innovation provides thought-provoking analysis and strategy for policy makers, business leaders, investors, entrepreneurs and everyone concerned about planning for an uncertain future.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Copyright
  4. Acknowledgments
  5. About the Author
  6. Introduction
  7. Part I: Theory and Policy
    1. Chapter 1: Global Demographic Trends
      1. Factors behind Ultra-Low Fertility Rates
      2. World's Population Forecast by Country
      3. Religion, Culture, and Fertility Rates
      4. Out-of-Wedlock Births
      5. Aging Trends
      6. Urbanization
    2. Chapter 2: Demographics and Innovation
      1. Economic Theory of Innovation
      2. Types of Innovation: Adaptive Innovation and Frontier Innovation
      3. Historical Trends of Innovation
      4. Social Changes Driven by Innovation
      5. Innovation Capabilities of Different Countries
      6. How to Promote Innovation?
      7. Other Factors that Can Enhance Innovation
    3. Chapter 3: Demographics and the Economy
      1. Low Fertility and Old-Age Support
      2. Low Fertility and Demographic Dividend/Deficit
      3. Can High Fertility Lower the Per Capita Asset Level?
      4. Can High Fertility Cause Unemployment?
      5. Robots, Unemployment, and Innovation
      6. A Little Bit of Economic Science Fiction
      7. Impact of Aging on Different Industries
      8. Demographics and Inequality
    4. Chapter 4: Resource and Environment
      1. Natural Resources and Economic Growth
      2. Clean Energy
      3. World Food Production
      4. Will Water Become Scarce?
      5. Demographics and the Environment
      6. Planning for a Mega City Comprised of 30 Million People
    5. Chapter 5: Public Policy
      1. Recent Pro-fertility Policies in Developed Countries
      2. Reversal of Fertility Policy in Asia
      3. Analysis of Pro-fertility Policy
      4. Building a Pro-fertility Culture
      5. Marriage Ratio and Out-of-Wedlock Births
      6. The Future of Pro-fertility Policies
      7. Immigration
      8. Internal Migration
      9. The War for Talent
      10. Competition among Countries: Large Countries vs. Small Countries
      11. A Tale of Ctrip.com: An Analogy between Company Size and Country Size
      12. Policy Pitfall of a Large Country
      13. Policy Strategies of Small Countries
      14. Language Barrier and the English Advantage
      15. Trade vs. Immigration
      16. Brexit and Donald Trump's Presidency
      17. Education Reform
  8. Part II: The Race of Innovation
    1. Chapter 6: Japan
      1. The Aging of the Japanese Economy
      2. The Lost Decades
      3. The Aging of Japanese Firms
      4. The Aging of Japanese Society
    2. Chapter 7: China
      1. Will the Twenty-First Century be the Century of China?
      2. Risk of Transiting from Manufacturing to Service
      3. Risk of a Widening Income Gap
      4. Risk of Political Reform
      5. Environmental and Natural Resource Risk
      6. The Demographic Advantage of China
      7. The Aging of the Chinese Economy
      8. The Great Demographic Transition of China
      9. Drastic Demographic Change as a Result of the One-Child Policy
      10. Gender Imbalance
      11. The End of the One-Child Policy
      12. Forecasting China's Fertility Rate
      13. China to Adopt Pro-fertility Policy
      14. Deterioration of Demographics
      15. The Impact of Demographic Change on the Chinese Economy and Innovation
      16. Policy Suggestions
      17. Conclusion
    3. Chapter 8: The United States of America
      1. A History of Innovation in the United States
      2. Does the United States have an Inherent Advantage in Innovation?
      3. Is Inequality a Problem?
      4. China vs. the United States
      5. Policy Recommendations
      6. Predicting the Effects of Donald Trump's Presidency
      7. The Thucydides Trap: A Conflict between China and the United States
    4. Chapter 9: Europe
      1. The Historical Innovation Champion
      2. Is it Too Early to Write Off Germany?
      3. Is the United Kingdom Different?
      4. Is Russia a Part of Europe?
      5. The Prospect of Innovation in Europe
      6. Fertility and Aging
      7. What is Causing the Difference in Fertility Rates?
      8. Immigration
      9. But What About the Skill Level of Immigrants?
      10. Muslim Immigration
      11. Brexit and the Future of the European Union
      12. Policy Recommendations
      13. Other Developed Countries
      14. Conclusion
    5. Chapter 10: India
      1. History of India
      2. Is India's Growth Sustainable?
      3. The Scale Advantage
      4. India's Infrastructure Problem
      5. Export and Balance of Trade
      6. Political System
      7. Poverty and Inequality
      8. Brain Drain or Brain Gain?
      9. Natural Resources
      10. The Environment
      11. Future Economic Outlook
      12. Other Developing Countries
  9. Conclusion
  10. Epilogue: Historical Competition Among Civilizations: An Essay on Transportation Technology, Demographics and the Race of Innovation
  11. References
  12. Index
  13. End User License Agreement