The Drucker Lectures: Essential Lessons on Management, Society and Economy

15Knowledge Lecture IV1989

Our topic for tonight is the knowledge-based organization. And perhaps the best way to get going is to try to visualize what a business may look like 10, 12, 15 years ahead.

It is a fairly reasonable assumption that the typical business is likely to be quite a bit larger in terms of sales 10 or 12 years from now because, barring major war or tremendous economic collapse, the economies of the developed countries are likely to grow pretty fast—and that’s even without the fairly substantial boost that may come from the opening of Eastern Europe. At the same time, let me say that business will employ on its own payroll probably no more than a quarter or a third of the people it employs now.

Notice that I said “on its own ...