Chapter 35

A Perspective on Predicting Currency Crises

R.P. Flood*,, N.P. Marion and J. Yepez

*IMF, Washington, DC, USA

University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, USA

Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA


Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables, or using the wrong models, or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a bootstrap experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our ...

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