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The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment: Lessons on Innovation, Disruption, and Strategy Execution by Alfred A. Marcus

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3. Hedging the Uncertainty

To benefit from technological advances, an organization must carefully choose the technologies in which to invest. Early estimates of future markets for new technologies tend to be inaccurate. Achieving an advanced understanding of the costs, given changes in technology as well as the changes in the business environment, is difficult. As hard as technical success is to estimate, it is also difficult to predict market success. It is necessary to confront the uncertainty, recognize the opportunities and threats, and generate moves that can facilitate successful commercialization. The risk is great, but so too might be the reward.

There are a number ways for organizations to anticipate what can take place next. They can ...

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