The Global Economy in Turbulent Times

CHAPTER 87 The Road to Copenhagen¹

Today, I write from the Kahala, Honolulu, along Waikiki Beach. Its lagoons house six Atlantic bottlenose dolphins within a secluded long stretch of clean, sandy beach and tropical gardens, amidst blue skies and lots of sunshine. With time on my hands, the setting gets me thinking about climate change. All eyes are now on Copenhagen, where the forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference will soon take place.

This presents a precious chance to save the planet from rising seas and advancing deserts. So much so it has created a wave of eye-catching demonstrations, such as the globally coordinated protest on October 24, calling for carbon concentration in the atmosphere to be kept at 350 parts per million. Inconveniently, there are already signs that sentiment in some high places in the United States could well be moving in the other direction.

The Dangers

Global warming gases have built up to record levels that match scientists’ worst-case scenarios: Carbon dioxide concentrations, currently hovering at 385 parts per million, are on the way to above 390 next year. The past million years have never seen 390! If this goes on unchecked, concentrations will hit 450 in 30 years. This means global temperatures will rise 4.3^o to 11.5°F by century’s end, on top of the 1°F rise in the past century. This has dire consequences on world climate patterns, to the detriment of mankind. Such warming will cause more extreme weather events, spread drought and floods ...