The Global Economy in Turbulent Times

CHAPTER 128 Thailand on the Rebound¹

The Thai economic rebound is beating expectations. February 2013 estimates by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) point to robust private spending in both consumption and investment, which pushed the fourth quarter of 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to close on 19 percent, exceeding 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012 and the 15.4 percent median by Dow Jones survey of economists.² Economic activity was earlier brought down sharply by natural disasters of unprecedented proportions (first, the impact of Japanese earthquake and tsunami in the second quarter of 2011 via supply chain disruptions, and later, massive flooding in the fourth quarter of 2011, the worst in nearly 70 years) from a +7.8 percent clip in 2010 to hardly any growth in 2011 as a whole (fourth quarter of 2011 contracted –9 percent). Total losses were estimated at 3 to 4 percent of GDP. The Thai economy has since recovered nicely, although it is still affected by slackening global economic growth and trade. Nevertheless, positive signs abound.

V-Shaped Recovery

Against this backdrop amid heightened widespread fragility about the global outlook, NESDB now expects the Thai economy to expand at 6.4 percent for 2012 as a whole (0.1 percent in 2011 and 7.8 percent in 2010), much higher than 5.5 percent estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2012; 4.7 percent by the World Bank in December 2012; and a median 5.4 percent expected ...