Over the last five chapters I have described methods, tools, and techniques for the five functions of project management: managing scope, project organization, quality, cost, and time. All five of these require us to make predictions about future performance, but as we all know, we cannot predict the future. We can make informed estimates (guesses), but there always remains some residual uncertainty. I have said several times over the last nine chapters, that the more effort that is put into our estimates, and the more historical information that can be used in guiding them, the more accurate they will be. However, if we put in too much effort, we reach a point where the estimate costs more than the impact of the inherent ...

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