To get a handle on where we are in today's markets—the issues, drivers, and looming uncertainties—I headed across town to sit down for another session with my business partner and resident guru—“The Researcher”—Dr. Andres Drobny (no relation). When we sat down to conduct his interview for Inside the House of Money in 2005, his central premise was that “it all ends in tears.”
His roots as a trained economist led him to point out building imbalances and disequilibrium in the global economy during the past few years, factors which pointed to an impending crisis—although the timing or exact cause eluded him. In late 2008, I witnessed him buy equities for the first time since I have known him—and not just any equities, but emerging market equities. Besides being my business partner, his rare skill set as former academic economist, Wall Street chief economist, and proprietary trader make him well-placed to comment on the macroeconomic backdrop that anchors all of the following interviews.
In running the research business at Drobny Global, Andres has built a franchise around the “favorite trade.” His research pieces, ad hoc discussions, and macro conferences all revolve around crystallizing macro- economic views, themes, and ideas into hard trade ideas: which market, instruments, and time horizon should be selected to express a given idea. The concept of having to bring one best idea to the table and justify it to an audience ...